The New York State Thruway Authority (“Authority”) announced today that while it is in the middle of the $2.7 billion multi-year Capital Plan, a nationally-recognized independent traffic consulting firm, Stantec, has revised its traffic growth projections for the Thruway, resulting in projected out-year funding gaps in the Authority’s 2005-2011 Multi-Year Financial Plan. Stantec has attributed the reduced traffic growth projections along the Thruway to the continued historically high gasoline prices (PDF, 1 page/176 Kb).

Stantec has revised its traffic and revenue projections for 2007-2011 to reflect that traffic growth trends have slowed along the Thruway, which is consistent with nationwide trends in travel.

“Actual traffic growth on the Thruway is below that of the last forecast. In fact, the lower growth is consistent with the trends seen nationally,” said Gerald V. Nielsten, Senior Principal at Stantec. “Traffic statistics provided by the Federal Highway Administration have shown that the average number of vehicle miles traveled (PDF, 1 page/163 Kb) nationally has been nearly flat over the last two and a half years, reflecting the longest period with no growth patterns since statistics were first reported by the FHWA in 1981.”

“While the Authority’s proposed 2008 Budget will be in balance, staff has begun evaluating measures to address the out-year gaps while preserving the Authority’s commitment to properly maintaining its infrastructure and delivering customer service,” said Thruway Authority Executive Director Michael R. Fleischer. “The Authority’s Audit and Finance Committee has directed staff to further limit future annual operating costs and explore additional revenue options.”

Since 1995, the number of full-time staff at the Authority has declined by 453 positions; the Authority will continue to reduce staffing levels in future years. Even after constraining operational costs to a low level, significant operational deficits and low debt service coverage ratios would remain in the out-years of the Plan. As a result, absent substantial reductions to operations and/or the Capital Program, revenue options need to be progressed.

It is anticipated that any preliminary proposal presented to the Authority’s seven-member Board to address out-year gaps will evaluate the Authority’s existing E-ZPass discount programs, as well as the potential for modest fixed adjustments between 2008 and 2011. Any revenue actions would be phased in, allowing the strategy to be revisited should traffic volumes return to previously projected levels or the Authority’s financial circumstances change in any significant way over the next four years.

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