On June 5, 2007, this was the view from the windows of the NYMTC office in Lower Manhattan. This photo is the Brooklyn-Queens Expressway, the cantilevered section in Brooklyn Heights. Taken shortly before end of rush hour at 10am, it’s obvious that there is very little “rush” at this hour of the day. And it’s likely to get much worse in the years ahead.

Meeting the challenges of growth is NYMTC’s theme for this year, and there’s quite a lot to talk about. Our region will experience very significant growth in population, travel and the economy over the next several decades. The forecasts are encouraging and a sign of good things to come, but it’s not without challenges. It means delivering more food, building supplies and fuel, among other things, to sustain more people, which translates into more freight.

The challenge before us is clear – future growth means that more people and goods must share an already constrained transportation infrastructure.

Freight movement in the U.S.

A new report entitled America’s Freight Challenge was recently released by the American Association of State Highway and Transportation Officials (AASHTO). It’s clear that the volume of new goods movement coming to the United States means that very significant infrastructure investments will need to be made nationally. America’s Freight Challenge warns of an impending crisis and the staggering effect of freight movement throughout the country.

Comparing trends in socio-economic indicators nationally with similar trends in goods movement reveals an interesting pattern. The movement of goods, by most measures, has been growing at a significantly higher rate than the population. Trends in gross domestic product (GDP), disposable income and personal consumption have grown at similar rates as the goods movement indicators. The surprise factor is that economic growth, rather than the increase in the number of people alone, is helping to fuel the staggering amount of goods being moved.

The challenges of growth in the region

Let’s start with the challenges of growth in our major freight corridors. Using NYMTC’s Best Practice Model (BPM), truck vehicle miles traveled (VMT) in these corridors is expected to increase on average more than 50 percent by the year 2030. But trucks aren’t the enemy. They’re a necessary part of the supply chain, delivering the goods to us, the people of this region.

The region’s growth in population and employment will continue to affect all aspects of our lives. It will mean more people commuting back and forth to work. It will affect the types and amounts of goods which move into, out of and through the region. And the costs of goods movement will be measured in traffic congestion and the cost of living and the quality of the air and the condition of our highways.

On a local level, NYMTC projections reveal an almost 50 percent increase in the volume, in tons of freight into, out of and across the region. All of this growth translates into increased movement of freight along already crowded transportation corridors.

This schematic representation of the volume of trucks by highway route in our region leads to an obvious question. Where are all the additional truck trips going to go? Many of the highway routes, also serving as the region’s freightways, already exhibit poor levels of service, impacting the delivery of freight today. Think about what this picture may look like by the year 2025.

Unless the NYMTC region moves aggressively to better balance the movement of goods by mode, this additional volume will be moved mainly by trucks. Almost 99 percent of the goods moved in the NYMTC counties are moved by a combination of truck or waterborne and truck.

Finding solutions for the region

In the NYMTC region, steps to address the movement of goods with better coordination in planning and more public and private investment has already started. Capital is being channeled into infrastructure and more attention paid to freight transportation. One example is the region’s largest shortline railroad, which has seen its carload traffic grow more than 200 percent in the last 10 years. Additional examples include:

The New York State Department of Transportation (NYSDOT) and the Port Authority of New York and New Jersey (PANYNJ) are spending $60 million to rehabilitate rail freight infrastructure. The payoff is in fewer derailments and more efficient operations, which in turn facilitate increased goods movement by rail.
The Port Authority and New York City have provided funding to restore rail freight service between Staten Island and New Jersey. In addition and the Port Authority is working to expand the capacity of the ExpressRail system.

What’s next?

There’s no simple answer to the questions raised, and no single solution exists to fix all of the challenges ahead. This region must build an awareness of the centrality of freight to its economic and environmental health. And be ready to think big on a menu of strategies. Developing solution sets that work together requires a unified approach and greater integration – by mode, by facility and across modes.

Before you spend time thinking about this, take a minute to look at the photo of the BQE again. Remember, this is today’s challenge, but our future path holds even more growth – more people and goods sharing the same roads, transit system and highways. Recognizing the impact of freight paves the way for more substantive, proactive discussions to solve problems now, before they become our reality. Fortunately, the dialogue has already begun … just in time.

This article was written with excerpts from Joel P. Ettinger’s opening and closing remarks, delivered on June 6 at NYMTC (www.NYMTC.org) and New York University’s Rudin Center for Transportation Policy and Management conference Delivering the Goods: Freight Needs of a Growing Population.

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